Before Dec 1, 2026
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$88
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 01:45 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 10% |
| 5 Nov, 16:13 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 21:34 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 18:37 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 02:44 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 16:34 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 10:07 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 13:54 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index rises above $8,000 at any time before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within the specified period. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but the resolution depends solely on the index value relative to the fixed end date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%