Before Nov 1, 2026
The market favoured Yes at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 33% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Drake releases a remix of Ella Langley’s song “Choosin’ Texas” before November 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about the 'FOMO' four-pack as relevant, but only a remix of “Choosin’ Texas” counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%