Exactly Yes
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$124k
Liquidity$124k
Resolved10 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 04:24 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 02:57 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 17:28 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 04:13 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if exactly four unique songs credited to Taylor Swift appear in the top four spots on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of October 10, 2026. It resolves to No if that specific condition is not met. Readers often mistake the linked news story about her wedding ring as relevant to the resolution, but only the Billboard chart data determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%