Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice
Implied probability 1%−29
24-hour volume$882
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 21% |
| 19 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 35% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari for Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this action does not occur by that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Mahmoud Khalil as the deciding factor, but only the Supreme Court's specific grant of certiorari counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%