Above 41800
The market favoured No at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 5%
24-hour volume$21
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$22k
Resolved31 Mar 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 5% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Starbucks reports having more than 41,800 total global stores in 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 41,800 or fewer. Readers often mistake the deadline for the store closure announcement date instead of the end of 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%