Above 8.0 million bpd
Implied probability 27%−9
24-hour volume$30
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves13 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −9 points at 18:16 UTC, after Bloomberg Markets: Oil Advances on Threats to Supply From Russia to Middle East — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 18:16 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 36% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OPEC reports that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in September 2026 exceeds 8.0 million barrels per day. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only official OPEC data counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 73%