Above 2.5%
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 15 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if South Africa's month-over-month retail sales growth in August 2026 exceeds 2.5%. It resolves to No if that figure is 2.5% or lower. Readers often mistake the linked nuclear fuel deal for the relevant data, but only the official retail sales statistic counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%