Above 1.2%
Implied probability 20%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if South Africa's quarterly GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2026 exceeds 1.2%. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this metric for annual growth or confuse the specific quarter with other reporting periods.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%