Before 2035
Implied probability 50%+3
24-hour volume$47
Total volume$56k
Liquidity$56k
Resolves1 Jan 2035
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 48% |
| 16 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 48% |
| 16 Oct, 11:44 UTC | 47% |
| 16 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 48% |
| 15 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 43% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 48% |
| 14 Oct, 00:07 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 49% |
| 12 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 43% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a humanoid robot walks on Mars before a human sets foot there before 2035. The outcome is No if no such event occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the driving record of the Perseverance rover for this event, but it does not count because the rover is not a humanoid robot.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 50%