California
Implied probability 99%+2
24-hour volume$147
Total volume$209k
Liquidity$209k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 15 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 99% |
| 11 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 97% |
| 9 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 97% |
| 9 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 97% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the California legislature adopts new congressional district maps between now and November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such adoption occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about child marriage for the resolution criteria, but only the legislative action on district maps matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%