North Carolina
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves3 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 19:35 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 19:24 UTC | 20% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if North Carolina has the largest Trump-to-Harris vote margin among all states where Democrats win a Senate seat in 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of which party wins the Senate overall rather than a comparison of presidential margins in specific states.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%