Before Jan 20, 2029
Implied probability 49%−1
24-hour volume$214
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 49% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Nov, 17:33 UTC | 50% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state between now and January 20, 2029. It resolves to No if this specific recognition does not occur by that deadline. Readers often confuse this with the linked story about refugee admissions, but only the official recognition of Somaliland counts toward the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 49%
- No 51%