Troye Sivan
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$250
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolved9 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 94% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Troye Sivan performs or is announced to perform at Charli XCX’s headlining sets at the 2026 Austin City Limits Music Festival during the official event timeframe. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Disney+ and Hulu streams as the resolution criteria, but only live performances at the festival count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%