3 to 9
Implied probability 26%−11
24-hour volume$20
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 24 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 37% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 52% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the President pardons, commutes a sentence for, or grants a reprieve to between three and nine people in October 2026. It resolves to No if this specific range of actions does not occur during that month. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any clemency action counts regardless of the date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 74%