La Bola Negra
Implied probability 86%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves31 Dec 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 5 Nov, 23:08 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 76% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the film *La Bola Negra* wins the Best International Feature Film award at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the general Best Picture category for the specific International Feature Film category.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%