Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$70k
Liquidity$70k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an OpenAI product implements a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers users and autonomously starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps before November 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a security incident for the required implementation of such an agent.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%