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Yes

Implied probability 96%−1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$118k
Liquidity$118k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Yes
0%50%100%96%20 Oct, 05:47 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now96%
26 Oct, 15:39 UTC96%
26 Oct, 13:23 UTC95%
26 Oct, 12:18 UTC97%
26 Oct, 03:06 UTC96%
26 Oct, 01:27 UTC97%
25 Oct, 22:06 UTC96%
25 Oct, 14:27 UTC98%
24 Oct, 17:36 UTC97%
24 Oct, 16:01 UTC98%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC97%
24 Oct, 11:05 UTC98%
24 Oct, 08:02 UTC97%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC98%
24 Oct, 01:13 UTC97%
24 Oct, 00:27 UTC98%
23 Oct, 23:50 UTC97%
23 Oct, 21:11 UTC98%
23 Oct, 20:42 UTC97%
23 Oct, 19:57 UTC96%
23 Oct, 17:31 UTC97%
23 Oct, 16:57 UTC96%
23 Oct, 16:22 UTC96%
23 Oct, 13:37 UTC95%
23 Oct, 12:43 UTC94%
23 Oct, 12:29 UTC95%
23 Oct, 09:07 UTC93%
23 Oct, 05:46 UTC97%
23 Oct, 05:11 UTC93%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC94%
23 Oct, 04:17 UTC96%
23 Oct, 03:53 UTC96%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC94%
22 Oct, 22:53 UTC97%
22 Oct, 22:25 UTC96%
22 Oct, 21:37 UTC98%
22 Oct, 21:23 UTC97%
22 Oct, 20:55 UTC97%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC98%
22 Oct, 19:37 UTC92%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC92%
22 Oct, 18:49 UTC96%
22 Oct, 18:05 UTC95%
22 Oct, 15:50 UTC97%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC93%
22 Oct, 11:45 UTC92%
22 Oct, 10:46 UTC94%
22 Oct, 04:55 UTC85%
22 Oct, 03:30 UTC92%
21 Oct, 23:00 UTC96%
21 Oct, 22:31 UTC92%
21 Oct, 21:48 UTC96%
21 Oct, 20:57 UTC92%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC96%
21 Oct, 16:08 UTC95%
21 Oct, 09:33 UTC91%
21 Oct, 06:09 UTC95%
21 Oct, 05:48 UTC93%
21 Oct, 03:50 UTC94%
21 Oct, 01:31 UTC96%
21 Oct, 00:56 UTC91%
20 Oct, 23:57 UTC93%
20 Oct, 22:24 UTC92%
20 Oct, 16:20 UTC94%
20 Oct, 15:58 UTC96%
20 Oct, 06:02 UTC94%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC95%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if a law banning horse-drawn carriages for hire becomes effective in New York City before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the headline's mention of 2028 as the deadline, but the actual cutoff is January 1, 2027.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 96%
  • No 4%

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