Sam Darnold: 1+
The market favoured No at 92% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$147k
Total volume$149k
Liquidity$149k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 19:20 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 01:25 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Sam Darnold scores at least one touchdown in the Seattle versus Washington game on September 27, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not score a touchdown or if the game does not take place as scheduled. Readers often mistake the resolution source for general NFL statistics rather than this specific official game result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%