Emmett Johnson: 1+
The market favoured No at 79% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 4%
24-hour volume$58k
Total volume$73k
Liquidity$73k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 20:07 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 19:20 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Sept, 08:15 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 21% |
| 26 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 15:01 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 14:46 UTC | 21% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 20% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Emmett Johnson scores at least one touchdown in the Kansas City versus Miami game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not score any touchdowns in that specific game. Readers often mistake the original scheduled date for the actual play date or assume the resolution depends on a different opponent.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%