Sam LaPorta: 1+
The market favoured No at 64% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$232k
Total volume$236k
Liquidity$236k
Resolved27 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 34% |
| 25 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 36% |
| 22 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 35% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Sam LaPorta scores at least one touchdown in the Green Bay vs Detroit game scheduled for October 25, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not score any touchdowns in that specific game. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the count includes regular-season games rather than only this single playoff matchup.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%