Emmett Johnson: 25+
The market favoured Yes at 58% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 5%
24-hour volume$62k
Total volume$82k
Liquidity$82k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 20:07 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Sept, 19:20 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 59% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 03:33 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 55% |
| 26 Sept, 20:12 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 18:36 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 05:49 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 53% |
| 24 Sept, 23:52 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 51% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 52% |
| 24 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 51% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Emmett Johnson gains at least 25 rushing yards in the Kansas City vs Miami game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. It resolves to No if he fails to reach that yardage total or does not play. Readers often mistake the linked story about Andy Reid and Kenneth Walker III as relevant, but only Johnson's stats in the specified game count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%