Sam LaPorta: 5+
The market favoured No at 56% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$27k
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$30k
Resolved7 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 62% |
| 5 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 54% |
| 5 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 64% |
| 5 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Oct, 00:50 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 44% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Sam LaPorta catches five or more passes in the Detroit versus Carolina football game originally scheduled for October 4, 2026. The result depends solely on his reception count during that specific match. Readers often mistake the contract talk headline for the resolution criteria, but only the game statistics matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%