Drake Maye: 2+
The market favoured No at 61% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 23% |
| 27 Sept, 18:20 UTC | 27% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 39% |
| 25 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 39% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Drake Maye throws two or more passing touchdowns in the New England versus Jacksonville game scheduled for September 27, 2026. The outcome is No if he throws fewer than two passing touchdowns in that specific game. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any performance by Maye counts regardless of the opponent or date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%