Aaron Rodgers: 2+
The market favoured No at 65% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$11k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 17:45 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 35% |
| 25 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 31% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Aaron Rodgers throws two or more passing touchdowns in the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. It resolves to No if he throws fewer than two passing touchdowns in that specific game. Readers often mistake the deadline, assuming any game involving Rodgers counts instead of only the one originally scheduled for that date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%