San Francisco
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$486
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 88% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 97% |
| 27 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Oct, 21:00 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if DeForest Buckner plays for the San Francisco 49ers before December 1, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not join that team by that deadline. Readers often mistake the trade announcement date for the effective start of his tenure with the new team.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%