San Francisco
The market favoured Yes at 79% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$26.5M
Total volume$27.7M
Liquidity$27.7M
Resolved22 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 19 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 79% |
| 19 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 78% |
| 18 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 79% |
| 17 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 78% |
| 17 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 78% |
| 17 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 77% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 78% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 77% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 78% |
| 16 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 77% |
| 15 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 77% |
| 15 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 77% |
| 14 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 77% |
| 14 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 77% |
| 14 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 02:35 UTC | 78% |
| 14 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 77% |
| 14 Oct, 01:15 UTC | 78% |
| 13 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 78% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 77% |
| 13 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 78% |
| 13 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 77% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the San Francisco 49ers win their game against the Washington Commanders scheduled for October 19, 2026. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific game. Readers often mistake the linked story about a different game as the deciding factor, but only the outcome of the October 19, 2026 matchup matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%