Tampa Bay
The market favoured No at 56% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$7.5M
Total volume$8.0M
Liquidity$8.0M
Resolved20 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 41% |
| 18 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 63% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 90% |
| 18 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 80% |
| 18 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 46% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 45% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 46% |
| 18 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 45% |
| 18 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 43% |
| 16 Oct, 12:05 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 43% |
| 16 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 04:42 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 44% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 44% |
| 15 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 43% |
| 15 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 44% |
| 15 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 43% |
| 15 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 44% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 44% |
| 15 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 44% |
| 14 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 44% |
| 14 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 44% |
| 14 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 44% |
| 14 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 45% |
| 14 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 44% |
| 14 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 15:31 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 44% |
| 13 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 41% |
| 13 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 43% |
| 13 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 43% |
| 12 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 43% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win their game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on October 18, 2026. It resolves to No if they lose or do not play that specific matchup. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about any game involving the Cowboys.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%