Las Vegas
The market favoured No at 66% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$29.1M
Total volume$30.9M
Liquidity$30.9M
Resolved6 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 49% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 07:38 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 34% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 02:57 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 19:09 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 18:07 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 11:11 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 37% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 37% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 35% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Las Vegas Raiders win their game against the Kansas City Chiefs on October 4, 2026. It resolves to No if they lose or tie. Readers often mistake the linked story about a past Chargers game as the deciding factor, but only the specific Chiefs matchup matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%