Patrick Mahomes
The market favoured No at 82% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 17%
24-hour volume$4
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Sept, 20:59 UTC | 6% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Patrick Mahomes scores the most full-PPR fantasy points among all quarterbacks in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL regular season. It resolves to No if he does not finish first. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking any week counts instead of specifically Week 3.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%