Don Mattingly
The market favoured No at 89% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$35k
Resolved1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 14 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 99% |
| 14 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 96% |
| 14 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 94% |
| 14 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 89% |
| 14 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 97% |
| 14 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 69% |
| 14 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 69% |
| 13 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 64% |
| 13 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 60% |
| 13 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 67% |
| 13 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 58% |
| 13 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 16:11 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 22% |
| 12 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 24% |
| 12 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 22% |
| 8 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 19% |
| 8 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 25% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 17% |
| 7 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 14% |
| 7 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 13% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Don Mattingly becomes the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies. The outcome is No if he does not hold that specific role. Readers often mistake interim coaches or managers of other teams for this resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%