Before Oct 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 16% |
What counts
The market resolves to 'Yes' if a hurricane with wind speeds of at least 157 mph forms in the Atlantic before October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Readers often mistake any named storm for a qualifying event, but only hurricanes meeting the specific wind speed threshold count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%