Iowa
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolved4 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 04:20 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iowa finishes the 2026 college football regular season without any losses. The outcome depends solely on the team's win-loss record during that specific season, not on individual game scores or bowl results. Readers often mistake the resolution trigger for a single game victory rather than the entire regular-season performance.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%