Iowa
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$20
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 10 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Iowa ranks in the top 25 of the College Football AP Poll Week 7 Rankings for the 2026-27 season. The outcome depends solely on that specific poll release expected on October 11, 2026. Readers often mistake the blowout win over Washington as the deciding factor, but only the official ranking matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%