Michigan
The market favoured Yes at 95% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 84%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved20 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 84% |
| 26 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 84% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Michigan ranks in the top 25 of the College Football AP Poll released on September 27, 2026. It resolves to No if the team falls outside that ranking at that time. Readers often mistake the release date for a different week or assume earlier rankings count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 84%
- No 16%