Oregon wins by over 2.5 points
The market favoured Yes at 57% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$661k
Total volume$710k
Liquidity$710k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 20:12 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 59% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 58% |
| 25 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Sept, 08:52 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 22:31 UTC | 55% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 56% |
What counts
Oregon must win its September 26, 2026 game against USC by at least three points for the outcome to be Yes. The margin is calculated using the final official score of that specific matchup. Readers often mistake a narrow victory or a different opponent's result as satisfying the condition.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%