Vanderbilt
The market favoured No at 76% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$879k
Total volume$919k
Liquidity$919k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 22:06 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 25% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 25% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 24% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Sept, 01:39 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 18:24 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 00:16 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 25% |
| 23 Sept, 21:02 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 25% |
| 22 Sept, 17:01 UTC | 24% |
What counts
Vanderbilt must win its college football game against Auburn, which is currently scheduled for September 26, 2026, for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends solely on the final result of that specific matchup between Vanderbilt and Auburn. Readers often mistakenly believe the linked story about Vanderbilt beating NC State determines the resolution, but that game is irrelevant to this market.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%