Above 7.3%
Implied probability 98%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 95% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeds 7.3% at any point during 2026. The outcome is No if the rate stays at or below that threshold for the entire year. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the measurement applies to a specific date rather than the full calendar year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%