European Space Agency
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves1 Jan 2031
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the European Space Agency launches the first crewed mission to the Moon before January 1, 2031. It resolves to No if any other entity achieves this milestone first or if no such launch occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about an ISS mission as a relevant event, but only lunar missions count toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%