Before Nov 3, 2026
Implied probability 3%+1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 22:09 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 02:13 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 18% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court issues an order allowing Missouri's HB 1 map to govern the November 3, 2026 election before that date. The outcome is No if no such order appears in any relevant proceeding by the deadline. Readers often mistake a lower court ruling for a final Supreme Court decision.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%