Lionel Messi
Why it moved: −7 points at 03:10 UTC, after SI Feed: ¡Boleto asegurado! Messi guía al Inter Miami a los playoffs — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 15 Oct, 03:10 UTC | 90% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 97% |
| 14 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 90% |
| 14 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 91% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 97% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 49% |
| 11 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 91% |
| 10 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 77% |
| 10 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 91% |
| 10 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 47% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lionel Messi finishes the 2026 MLS regular season with the most goals of any player. The outcome is No if he does not lead the league in goals. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the playoffs instead of the conclusion of the regular season.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 90%
- No 10%