Aaron Judge
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 23:02 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 21:59 UTC | 4% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Aaron Judge hits at least 30 home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season. The outcome is No if he fails to reach that total. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the postseason or a different year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%