Shohei Ohtani to pitch in a game
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 16:42 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 10:33 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Shohei Ohtani pitches in a Major League Baseball regular season game between July 29, 2026, and September 27, 2026. It resolves to No if he does not pitch during that specific window. Readers often mistake the linked news story about his expected return as the resolution trigger, but only an actual game appearance within the specified dates counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%