Tampa Bay vs Cleveland
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolved7 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 12 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 99% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 57% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 56% |
| 9 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 56% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 57% |
| 9 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 55% |
| 9 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 49% |
| 9 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 59% |
| 9 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 44% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 17% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 33% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the American League Championship Series features Tampa Bay and Cleveland in the 2026 baseball season. It resolves to No if that specific matchup does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked story about the Rays sweeping the Yankees as the deciding factor, but only the final ALCS participants matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%