Crowley, 4+ pts
Implied probability 100%+1
24-hour volume$893
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Nov, 06:40 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 13:53 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 60% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin governor's race by a margin of at least four percentage points. The outcome is No if they win by less than that margin or lose the election. Readers often mistake the linked headline for the resolution, but only the final certified vote count determines the result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%