Warner, 21+ pts
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Nov, 23:33 UTC | 56% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia by a margin of at least 21 percentage points. The outcome is No if the victory margin is less than 21 percentage points or if the party loses. Readers often mistake the candidate's individual point total for the required margin, but the rule specifies the party's overall vote share advantage.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%