Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
Implied probability 0%−13
24-hour volume$87k
Total volume$611k
Liquidity$611k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by a margin of at least 3 percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican Party wins by less than 3 percentage points or loses the election. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any win counts instead of the specific 3-point threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%