Wilson, 25+ pts
Implied probability 1%+1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by a margin of 25 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if the winning margin is less than 25 percentage points. Readers often mistake the required margin for a simple win, but the candidate must achieve a specific point difference, not just victory.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%