Johnson, 2+ pts
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 6%
24-hour volume$313
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 7% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by a margin of at least two percentage points. The outcome is No if the Democratic Party wins by less than two percentage points or loses the race. Readers often mistake the required margin, thinking any win counts rather than specifically a victory of 2% or more.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%