Marshall, 3+ pts
Implied probability 39%−3
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 16 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 39% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 38% |
| 15 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 40% |
| 15 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 42% |
| 15 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 43% |
| 14 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 41% |
| 14 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 40% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 43% |
| 12 Oct, 15:33 UTC | 46% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas by a margin of at least three percentage points. The outcome is No if the Republican Party wins by less than three percentage points or loses the election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 61%