Sand, 9+ pts
Implied probability 99%+2
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$64k
Liquidity$64k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 04:34 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 15:28 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 08:10 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 27% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by a margin of 9 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if the Democratic candidate loses or wins by less than 9 percentage points. Readers often mistake the linked story about Rob Sand’s past victory as the deciding factor, but only the official results of the 2026 election count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%